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【中英對照】Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (三):中國的經驗及運作方式 China's Lessons and Its Ways of Operating


中華文化的發展是對中國人千年經驗中汲取教訓的延伸。他們在哲學中闡明了事物是如何工作的,以及在處理這些現實時什麼方法最有效。這些理念明確了人們之間應該如何相處,如何進行政治決策以及經濟體系應該如何運作。

The Chinese culture developed as an extension of the experiences the Chinese had and the lessons they learned over the millennia. They were set out in philosophies about how things work and what ways work best in dealing with these realities. These philosophies made clear how people should be with each other, how political decision making should be done, and how the economic system should work.

 

在西方世界,占主導地位的哲學是「猶太基督教主義、民主主義、資本主義/社會主義」。每個人幾乎都從這些中選擇出適合他們的組合。在中國,主要的思想家是「儒家、道家、法家」,直到20世紀初融合馬克思主義和資本主義。

In the Western world the dominant philosophies are Judeo-Christian, democratic, and capitalist/socialist. Each person pretty much chooses from these to come up with the mix that suits them. In China, the main ones were Confucian, Taoist, and Legalist until the early 20th century when Marxism and capitalism entered the mix. The most desired mix to follow has historically been the emperor’s most desired mix.

 

皇帝通常會研究中國歷史,看看它們是如何運作的,並提出自己的偏好,將它們付諸實踐,學習和適應。如果這種組合有效,那麼王朝就可以生存並繁榮發展(按照他們的說法,具有“天命”)。如果不是,它將失敗,並由另一個王朝取代。這個過程從記錄歷史開始就一直存在,並且只要有人決定如何共同做事,這個過程就會一直持續下去。

Emperors typically study Chinese history to see how these have worked and come up with their own preferences, put them into practice, learn, and adapt. If the mix works, the dynasty survives and prospers (in their parlance it has the “Mandate of Heaven”). If it doesn’t, it fails and is replaced by another dynasty. This process has gone on from before history was recorded and will go on as long as there are people who have to decide how to collectively do things.

 

雖然我很難用幾句話就把這些哲學解釋清楚,以下是我能做到的:

While I can’t do these philosophies justice in a couple of sentences each without digressing too deeply, here is the best I can do:

 

1、儒家思想尋求“通過讓人們知道自己在等級制度中所扮演的角色”並知道”如何扮演角色“來實現和諧。從家庭開始(在夫妻,父子,兄弟姐妹之間等)一直延伸到統治者及其臣民,通過善行和順從綁定在一起。每個人都尊重和服從他們之上的人,他們既善良又對他人施加行為標準。所有人都應該善良,誠實和公正。儒教重視和諧,基礎廣泛的教育和任人唯賢。

Confucianism seeks to bring about harmony by having people know their roles in the hierarchy and know how to play them well starting from within the family (between the husband and the wife, the father and the son, the older sibling and the younger sibling, etc.) and extending up to the ruler and their subjects, with them bound together by benevolence and obedience. Each person respects and obeys those above them, who are both benevolent and impose standards of behavior on them. All people are expected to be kind, honest, and fair. Confucianism values harmony, broad-based education, and meritocracy.

 

2、法家主張專制領導人儘快征服和統一“天下”。它認為,世界是一個“殺或被殺”的叢林,皇帝的中央政府的力量和對它的嚴格服從必須存在,而皇帝/政府不能給人民太多的仁慈。西方與之對應的是法西斯主義。

Legalism favors conquest and unification of “all under heaven” as soon as possible by an autocratic leader. It believes that the world is a “kill or be killed” jungle in which the strength of the emperor’s central government and strict obedience to it must exist without much benevolence given to the people by the emperor/government. The Western equivalent is fascism.

 

3、道家教導自然規律和與自然和諧相處是最重要的。道家認為,大自然是由對立的事物構成的,和諧來自于良好地平衡了它們的“陰陽“。這對中國人如何尋求對立平衡起著重要作用。

Taoism teaches that the laws of nature and living in harmony with them are of paramount importance. Taoists believe that all of nature is composed of opposites and that harmony comes from balancing them well—yin and yang. This plays an important role in how the Chinese seek the balance of opposites.

 

其中,儒家思想和新儒家思想一直是最有影響力的,通常還會加入一些法家思想。直到20世紀初馬克思主義得到毛澤東等领导人的青睞。

Of these, Confucianism and neo-Confucianism have been the most influential through time, usually with some Legalism thrown in, up until the early 20th century when Marxism gained favor with Mao and then with his successors.

 

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從記錄的歷史開始,所有中國制度都不平等的阶级一位資深中國領導人告訴我,美國人和中國人之間的核心區別在於,美國人將個人放在首位,而中國人把家庭和集體高於一切。過去的幾百年,中國領導人以父母經營家庭的方式來管理國家——自上而下,要求高標準行為,將集體利益置於任何個人利益之上,每個人都知道自己的位置並且尊重層次中的人員,使系統有序運作。

All of these Chinese systems from the beginning of recorded history were hierarchical and non-egalitarian. I was told by one of the most senior Chinese leaders, who is also a highly informed historian and an extremely practical top policy maker, that the core difference between Americans and the Chinese is that Americans put the individual above all else and the Chinese put the family and the collective above all else. He explained that Chinese leaders seek to run the country the way they think parents should run the family—from the top down, maintaining high standards of behavior, putting the collective interest ahead of any individual interest, with each person knowing their place and having filial respect for those in the hierarchy so that the system works in an orderly way.

 

“國家”一詞由“國”和“家”兩個字元組成,代表著領導者如何看待自己在照顧國家/家庭中的角色——就像嚴格的父母一樣。因此,也許有人會說中國政府是自上而下運行的(就像一個家庭),為集體服务,而美國的方法是自下而上(例如民主)而運行,並為個人服务。(這些方法上的差異可能導致對立政策,并互相令彼此反感)

He explained that the word “country” consists of two characters, “state” and “family,” which represents how the leaders view their roles in looking after their state/family—like strict parents. So one might say that the Chinese government is run from the top down (like a family) and optimizes for the collective while the American approach is run from the bottom up (e.g., democracy) and optimizes for the individual. (These differences of approach can lead to policies that those on the opposite side find objectionable, which I will explore in more detail in the next chapter.)

 

至於治理結構的工作原理(即在中央政府的等級結構中誰向誰報告,和如何延伸到與地區和地方政府的互動),這已經演變了數千年,許多朝代都發展了成熟的方法。因為離題太遠了,所以我不會介紹這些方法。

As far as how the governance structure works (i.e., who reports to whom in the hierarchy within the central government and how that extends down to interactions with regional and local governments), that has evolved over thousands of years and many dynasties into well-developed approaches that I won’t get into because the digression would be too great.

 

然而,顯而易見的是,存在著一種完善的結構,在這種結構中,皇帝擁有負責不同領域的大臣,這些大臣通過龐大的官僚機構與各省市進行互動,而與此同時,一直以來,皇帝和臣民都有很多爭奪權力的鬥爭。

However what is clear is that there are well-established structures in which the emperor has ministers who are responsible for different domains that extend down to interacting with the provinces and municipalities via a large bureaucracy, and, at the same time, there have always been lots of fights to keep and get control of power by the emperors and the people who report to them.

 

當代中國最受尊敬的學者告訴我,中國37% 的皇帝是非自然死亡的,而且他們經常被周圍的人在政治鬥爭中殺死。中國的政治歷來是殘酷的。

I was told by Zhiwu Chen, who is one of the most highly respected contemporary Chinese scholars, that 37% of emperors died unnaturally and that more often than not they were killed by the people around them or others in political struggles.[7] Politics in China has traditionally been brutal.

 

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從地理上講,中國基本上是一個巨大的平原,周圍環繞著巨大的自然邊界(山脈和海洋),該平原上人口眾多。因此,中國的大部分領土都在這些邊界之內,大多數戰爭是為了爭奪對中原的控制權……主要是中國人自己之間的戰爭(儘管有時也會發生在外國侵略者和中國人之間的戰爭)。

Geographically China is basically one giant plain surrounded by big natural borders (mountains and seas) with a giant population in that plain. For that reason most of China’s world was within those borders and most wars were for control of it and were fought within those natural borders, mostly between the Chinese themselves, though sometimes between foreign invaders and the Chinese.

 

就戰爭及其哲學而言,傳統上的目標是理想地贏得戰爭,不是通過打仗,而是通過悄悄地發展自己的力量,使之大於對手的力量,以不戰而屈人之兵。人們還廣泛使用心理學來影響對手的行為以產生預期的結果。

As far as wars and the philosophies about them are concerned, the goals have traditionally been to ideally win wars not by fighting but by quietly developing one’s power so that it is greater than the opponent’s so that one can then show it and have the opponent capitulate without fighting. There is also the extensive use of psychology to influence the opponents’ behaviors to produce the desired results.[8]

 

歷代以來,中國境內發生過許多暴力戰爭,儘管在中國境外並沒有很多。中國境外的戰爭是為了建立中國的相對實力、安全和貿易,而不是為了佔領。

Still there have been numerous violent wars inside of China over the dynasties, though there haven’t been many outside of China. Those that were outside China were for the purpose of establishing China’s relative power, security, and trade, not for occupation.

 

學者們認為,中國缺乏擴張意愿是因為中國的土地面積如此之大,以至於内部控制已經綽綽有餘,因為資源基本自給自足。他們更願意通過隔離保持自己的文化純淨。與其他帝國(習慣征服並佔領其他國家)不同,中國相對少對外佔領他鄉。

Scholars believe that China’s lack of significant expansion of its empire outside of China is because the land mass of China is so large that controlling it has been more than enough to handle, because it is has largely been self-sufficient in resources, and because they have preferred to maintain their culture with a purity that is best achieved through isolation. Unlike other great empires that have conquered and occupied other countries, it was relatively uncommon for China to occupy distant states.

 

傳統上,中國人傾向于與境外帝國建立關係,這種方式類似於先前提到的哲學所期望的即當事方瞭解自己的位置並據此行事,其位置由其相對權力決定。

Traditionally the Chinese have preferred to enter into relations with empires outside their borders in a manner that is similar to what one might expect from the previously mentioned philosophies—i.e., with the parties knowing their places and acting accordingly and with their places determined by their relative powers.

 

例如,如果中國更強大(在中國就是這種情況),那麼實力較弱的國家通常會以禮物和恩惠向中國表示敬意,作為回報,它們通常會得到和平的保證、對其權威的承認和貿易機會。這些從屬國家通常保持他們的風俗習慣,他們的國家的管理沒有受到干涉。

For example, if China is more powerful, which was typically the case in its region, the less powerful states typically paid tribute to China with gifts and favors and in return typically received guarantees of peace, recognition of their authority, and trading opportunities. These subordinate countries typically maintained their customs and experienced no interference in how their countries were run.

 

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至於中國貨幣、信貸和經濟而言,歷史是漫長而複雜的,經歷了第二章及其附錄中描述的全部貨幣/信貸/經濟體系和週期,因此,中國與幾千年來世界各地的情況基本相同,儘管確切的時間和方式有所不同。

As far as Chinese money, credit, and the economy are concerned, the history is very long and complicated and went through the full range of money/credit/economic systems and cycles that were described in Chapter 2 and its appendix, so what happened in China is basically the same as what happened all around the world through the millennia, though exactly when and exactly how is a bit different.

 

更具體地說,像在中國境外一樣,在中國內部,存在著各種類型的貨幣系統,各種實體發行的貨幣,所有系統都以我所描述的方式運行。在中國,幾千年來最常使用的貨幣是金屬(主要是銅),第二章中描述和債務週期由同樣的因素來驅動(即債務創造了購買力,因此提供債務使人們感到更富裕並促進了經濟發展和財富,並被允許增長到遠遠超過為他們提供服務所需的貨幣數量,並且貨幣數量的增長速度遠遠超過其可以購買的商品和服務的數量)。

More specifically, inside China like outside China there were the various types of monetary systems used and currencies issued by all sorts of entities with all the systems operating in the ways I described. Within China, the currency most used through the millennia was metal (mostly copper), and debt cycles like those described in Chapter 2 took place for the same reasons (i.e., debts created buying power so providing them made people feel richer and raised the economy and wealth and were allowed to grow to become much greater than the amount of money needed to service them and the amount of money grew much faster than the amount of goods and services that it could buy).

 

在這些大的債務週期中,有穩定的時期,即債務增長不過度;相對的泡沫時期,債務的增長相對於可以維持的水準而言過高;債務危機時期,沒有足夠的資金來償還債務;印製貨幣為緩解債務危機而印製鈔票的時期,這導致了通貨膨脹。

In these big debt cycles there were stable periods when debt growth wasn’t excessive, bubble periods when debt growth was excessive relative to levels that could be sustained, debt crisis periods when there wasn’t enough money to service debt, and printing of money periods in which money was printed to alleviate the debt crises, which produced hyperinflations.

 

在國際上(有時在國內)白銀是主要的金屬貨幣,儘管有時也使用黃金。至於經濟的變化,主要是從原始農業演化至青銅時代、鐵器時代等以製造業器具劃分的經濟時代,包括與外國人/野蠻人進行貿易的各種途徑(最重要的是通過絲綢之路)。

Internationally (and sometimes domestically) silver was the main metal currency used, though gold was also sometimes used. As for the economy’s changes, the system went from being primarily agricultural and feudal through many manufacturing incarnations such as the Bronze Age and the Iron Age, including various approaches to trading with foreigners/barbarians (most importantly through the Silk Road), which built a rich merchant class that produced cycles of big wealth gaps and the wealthy having their wealth taken away from them.

 

在整個中國歷史上,有時會允許私人企業家經營企業,這通常還會產生財富和財富懸殊,導致財富重新分配。這些也以大週期發生。例如,財富創造、分配和破壞方式都發生了無數的變化。與中國是一個聰明勤勞的社會相一致,有許多技術發明創造推動經濟向前發展。它們以前面各章中描述的典型方式發生。

Throughout China’s history private entrepreneurial businesses were sometimes allowed, which typically also produced wealth and wealth disparities that led to redistributions of wealth and the businesses and other assets being taking over by the government. These also occurred in big cycles. For example, there were an untold number of changes in approaches created and destroyed for the building and the dividing of wealth. Consistent with China being an intelligent and industrious society, there were many technological inventions created that moved the economy forward. They occurred in the archetypical ways that were described in the earlier chapters.

 

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儘管大多數情況都相同,但中國的貨幣和經濟趨勢有所不同。例如,即使中國在9世紀發明了紙幣,但是直到19世紀後期人民幣問世之前,使用銅幣的傳統一直很強。

While most things were the same, there were some different monetary and economic tendencies in China. For example, there was a strong tradition of using copper coins, even after China invented paper money in the 9th century and up until the introduction of the yuan in the late 19th century.

 

下圖傳達了有關中國貨幣和信貸如何週期行運行的一些資訊。正如我在第2章“貨幣,信貸,債務和經濟活動的大循環”中所解釋的那樣,貨幣系統具有三種基本類型,其中:

1)貨幣具有內在價值(例如金,銀和銅幣),我將其稱為第一類貨幣系統;

2)貨幣與具有內在價值的資產相關聯,即具有固定價值的紙幣可以兌換成黃金或白銀(第二類貨幣系統);以及

3)沒有任何聯繫,稱為法定貨幣系統(第3類貨幣系統)。

The following charts convey some information about how Chinese money and credit passed through these cycles. As I explained in Chapter 2, “The Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity,” there are three basic types of monetary systems in which 1) money has intrinsic value (like gold, silver, and copper coins), which I call a Type 1 monetary system, 2) money is linked to assets that have intrinsic value, which is paper money that can be exchanged for gold or silver at a fixed price (a Type 2 monetary system) and 3) money that is not linked to anything, which is called a fiat monetary system (a Type 3 monetary system).

 

正如所解釋的那樣,隨著歷史上的每一個缺點變得無法容忍,這些問題在歷史上從一個變為另一個。下圖顯示了這些貨幣體系自唐代以來在中國歷史中的變化情況的極簡圖。

As explained, these have historically changed from one to another as the weaknesses of each become intolerable. The diagram below conveys an ultra-simplified picture of how these currency systems have rotated through China’s history since the Tang Dynasty.

 

事實上,實際情況要複雜得多,因為中國的不同地區經常有不同的貨幣,有時來自其他國家的硬幣和鑄幣(如16世紀晚期的西班牙銀幣)的變化比圖表中顯示的要頻繁得多。圖表仍然具有廣泛的指示性,圖表旨在表明它們擁有與世界上其他地區基本相同的全部貨幣體系,最重要的是,硬通貨導致了債務問題,導致了對硬通貨的拋棄,導致了高通貨膨脹,導致了硬通貨的回歸。

In fact it was much more complicated than this as different parts of China often had different currencies and at times coins and ingots from other countries (e.g., Spanish silver dollars in the late 16th century) that changed more frequently than what is conveyed in the chart. Still the chart is broadly indicative and meant to show that they had the full range of monetary systems that worked essentially the same as elsewhere in the world, most importantly with the cycles of hard money leading to debt problems leading to the abandonment of hard money leading to high or hyperinflations leading to the return to hard money.

 

下圖顯示的通貨膨脹率可以追溯到1750年,這反映了貨幣價值的變化。早期相對穩定的通貨膨脹主要是中國使用金屬(銀和銅)作為貨幣的結果。與印製中央貨幣不同,金屬按照原始重量被兌換成貨幣(即一型貨幣體系)。清朝破敗時,各省宣佈獨立並發行自己的貨幣,貨幣由銀和銅製成,其價值取決於重量(一型貨幣體系被保留),這保證了貨幣價值的穩定,並解釋了為什麼在這樣一個可怕的時期,這些錢也沒有出現過高水準的通貨膨脹。然而,在20世紀20年代和30年代,債務(承諾交付資金)增長使得傳統的債務週期提供資金的承諾遠遠超出了提供資金的能力,並出現違約問題,這導致了傳統金屬標準的廢棄,金屬硬幣與銀的私人所有權被取締。

The chart below shows inflation rates going back to 1750, which reflects the changing value of money. The periods of relatively stable inflation early on were largely the result of China using metals (silver and copper) as money. Instead of a central currency being printed, raw weights of metals were exchanged as money (i.e., there was a Type 1 monetary system). When the Qing Dynasty broke down, provinces declared independence and issued their own currencies through their silver and copper and valued by their weights (i.e., the Type 1 monetary system was retained), which held their value which is why, even during this terrible period, there was not an exceptionally high level of inflation measured in this money. However debt (i.e., promises to deliver this money) grew in the 1920s and 1930s, which led to the classic debt cycle in which the promises to deliver money far exceeded the capacities to come up with the monies to deliver so there was a default problem, which led to the classic abandonment of the metal standard and the outlawing of metal coins and private ownership of silver.

 

如前所述,貨幣用於

1)國內貿易,受政府壟斷控制,可以不受法定貨幣和虛假貨幣的影響;

2)國際貿易,此時貨幣必須具有實際價值,否則將不被接受。

As previously explained, currencies are used for 1) domestic transactions, which the government has a monopoly in controlling and can get away with them being fiat and flimflam, and 2) international transactions, in which case the currencies must be of real value or they won’t be accepted.

 

一般來說,用於國際交易的貨幣要比較好一些。對一國貨幣實際價值的檢驗,是看該國貨幣是否在與本國相同的國際交易所中被積極使用和交易。當資本管制阻止本國貨幣在國際上自由兌換時,這種貨幣更容易貶值,這也是為什麼要把不進行資本管制作為儲備貨幣的標準之一。因此,一個原則是,當你看到一種貨幣受到資本管制時,特別是當存在嚴重的國內債務問題時,這種貨幣就會枯竭。

As a rule, the better money is that which is used for international transactions. The test of the real value of a domestic currency is whether or not it is actively used and traded internationally at the same exchange internationally as domestically. When there are capital controls that prevent the free exchange of one’s domestic currency internationally that currency is more susceptible to being devalued, which is also why one of the standards for being a reserve currency is that there are no capital controls on it. So, as a principle, when you see capital controls being put on a currency, especially when there is a big domestic debt problem, run out of that currency.

 

在20世紀30年代中期,中國有兩種貨幣,一種是用於國內的法定貨幣,另一種是用於國際支付的金銀貨幣。在國內使用的法定貨幣被大量印刷,貶值很多,而且發行這些貨幣的政府由於內戰失敗,所能控制的領土越來越少,這就是我們在圖表中看到的那個時期的惡性通貨膨脹出現的原因。

In China in the mid-1930s two currencies existed—one that was fiat paper that was used domestically and one that was gold and silver that was used for international payments. The fiat paper one that was used domestically was printed abundantly and devalued a lot, even as the government issuing it controlled less and less territory as it lost the civil war, which is why we see the hyperinflation shown in the chart during that period.

 

記住一個原則,在債務危機和戰爭期間不要使用法定貨幣,因為它們會被大量印製以支付債務,這將導致法定貨幣貶值,並導致高通脹或惡性通脹。

Remember, as a principle, get out of fiat currencies during debt crises and wars because they will be printed a lot to fund debt payments, which will lead them to be devalued and to high or hyperinflation.

 

如下圖所示,在經歷了第二次世界大戰和內戰的動盪之後,1948年12月,第一批人民幣作為法定貨幣發行,並保持有限的供應,以結束惡性通貨膨脹。1955年發行了第二批人民幣,1962年發行了第三批。從1955年到1971年,匯率固定在1美元兌2.46元。從1972年到20世紀70年代末,中國在控制貨幣和信貸方面做得更好。從20世紀70年代末到90年代初,你可以看到另一輪高通脹。它是由1971年全球貨幣對黃金貶值、全球通脹壓力、中國逐步取消價格控制、寬鬆信貸以及國有企業缺乏支出控制等因素造成的。1996年,中國允許經常專案可兌換,但資本專案不允許。從1997年到2005年,人民幣對美元的匯率一直保持在8.3。2005年,中國結束了與美元掛鉤的政策。

As shown in the chart below, after the turbulence of World War II and the civil war, in December 1948, the first RMB was issued as a fiat currency that was kept in limited supply to end the hyperinflation. In 1955 a second issuance of RMB was made, and in 1962 a third was issued. From 1955 to 1971 the exchange rate was fixed at 2.46 to the US dollar. From 1972 through the late 1970s, China did a better job of restraining money and credit. You can see another round of high inflation from the late 1970s to the early ’90s. It was caused by the global devaluation of money against gold in 1971, global inflationary pressures, China phasing out its price controls, easy credit, and lack of spending controls among state-owned enterprises. In 1996 convertibility was allowed for current account items but not for the capital account. From 1997 until 2005 the exchange rate to the dollar was kept at 8.3. In 2005 the peg with the dollar was ended.

 

下面的圖表顯示了自1920年以來以美元和黃金計算的人民幣價值,以及這段時期的通貨膨脹率和增長率。在此之前,匯率的歷史非常零散,沒有參考意義。正如你所看到的,一共有兩次貶值,一次是在1948年建立新匯率的時候,還有一次是從1980年到20世紀90年代早期的一系列貶值,其主要目的是支援出口商和管理經常帳戶赤字,這導致了那個時期非常高的通貨膨脹。如圖表所示,1978年前後,增長相對較快且不穩定;1978年以後,增長較快且比較穩定,直到最近由於COVID-19而出現短暫的下降。

The charts below show the value of Chinese currency in dollar terms and in gold terms since 1920, plus the inflation and growth rates over this period. The history for the currency rates is so fragmented before that that it is not worth referencing. As you can see, there were two devaluations, one at the setting up of the new exchange rate in 1948, and a series of devaluations from 1980 until the early 1990s, largely aimed at supporting exporters and managing current account deficits,[11] which led to the very high inflation during that period. As shown, growth was relatively fast and erratic until around 1978, then fast and much less erratic since 1978 until the recent brief plunge due to COVID-19.

 

————————————————————————————————

 

總的來說,市場和經濟的漫長而動盪的歷史賦予了中國人,尤其是中國經濟決策者,對於貨幣、債務和經濟的與其他歷史一樣深刻而永恆的看法。

Generally speaking the very long and volatile history of markets and economies has given the Chinese, and especially Chinese economic policy makers, the same sort of deep and timeless perspectives about money, debt, and economies as they have for other history.

 

然而,這並不完全正確。 雖然它給了大多數中國人強烈的儲蓄欲望和恰當的風險意識,本能地驅使他們保存安全流動資產(如現金存款)和有形資產(如房地產和一些黃金),大多數中國投資者在股票和風險債務等風險較高的資產方面有經驗有限,因而他們在這些領域表現得仍相對天真,但他們學習得非常快。

However, that is not totally true. While it has given most Chinese a strong desire to save and an appropriate sense of risk that innately drives them to save in safe liquid assets (e.g., cash deposits) and tangible assets (e.g., real estate and some gold), most Chinese investors have limited experiences in some riskier assets such as equities and risky debt, so they can be naïve in these areas, though they are learning very fast.

 

當政策制定者瞭解貨幣、信貸、貨幣政策、財政政策和經濟如何運作,以及如何重組壞賬時,我發現中國有很好的遠見,而且是世界一流的。

When it comes to policy makers understanding how money, credit, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the economy work, and how to restructure bad debts, I have found China to have great perspective and to be world-class.

 

現在讓我們更仔細地回顧中國從1800年至今的歷史......

Now let’s look a bit more closely at China’s history from 1800 until now.

(待續)

————————————————————————————————

(系列文章)

Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (一):背景

Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (二):中國歷史簡述

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