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【中英對照】Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (二):中國歷史簡述


任何想瞭解中國基礎的人,都需要瞭解大約4000年中國歷史的基礎知識,以及其中不斷重複的模式,從中提取得到普世原則,即使瞭解這些知識已經是一個很難的任務。

Anyone who wants to have a fundamental understanding of China needs to know the basics of China’s roughly 4,000-year history, the many patterns that have repeated in it, and the timeless and universal principles that the leaders of China have gained from studying these patterns—even though getting that basic understanding is quite an undertaking.

 

儘管我不能保證我對中國的觀點是最好的看法,但我可以保證它已經與世界上最有見識的人很好地切合,並以一種直截了當的方式呈現。下面是簡要的敘述。

While I can’t guarantee that my perspectives about China are the best ones to believe, I can guarantee that they have been well-triangulated with some of the most informed people in the world and are presented here in an exceptionally forthright way. Here it is in brief.

 

中國文明源遠流長,距今已有4000多年的悠久歷史......

China’s civilization with its highly civilized behavior has a long and continuous history that began about 4,000 years ago. I can’t possibly recount the extensiveness of it because there are far too many dynasties from the Xia Dynasty around 2000 BC (which lasted about 400 years and was highly civilized and known for creating the Bronze Age) through over 1,000 years of various dynasties to Confucius around 500 BC (whose philosophy greatly influenced how the Chinese behave with each other to this day), to the Qin Dynasty (which united most of the area we now call China for the first time in 221 BC), then through the highly developed Han Dynasty (which developed governance systems that are still in use today) that lasted from around 200 BC to around 200 AD, and then a number of other dynasties until the Tang Dynasty in 618.

 

......現在,我將簡要地簡要介紹600年後的時期。

While I scanned China’s history from the Xia Dynasty[1] through the year 600 AD (i.e., just before the remarkable Tang Dynasty), I looked at most of the dynasties since then more carefully to see the patterns. I wrote up my study of them that I will share later. I will now focus very briefly on the post-600 AD period.

 

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在下面的圖表中,我繪製了一張西元600年至今中國的力量比較圖。它傳達了在這段時間內中國相對於世界其他帝國的強大力量。

In the chart below I plotted the same overall power gauge that I showed you in the first chart but applied only to China from 600 AD until now. It conveys how powerful China was relative to other empires in the world over that time frame.

 

如您所見,在大部分時間裡,中國都是世界上最強大的帝國之一(除了1840年左右到1950年左右急劇下降的顯著例外)。如圖所示,大約在1950年,它開始重新崛起,重新成為世界上最強大的兩個帝國之一。

As you can see, for most of that time China was one of the world’s most powerful empires, with the notable exception from around 1840 until around 1950 when it went into a steep decline. As shown, around 1950 it started to rise again, at first slowly and then very rapidly, to regain its position as one of the two most powerful empires in the world.

 

在過去的1400多年的大部分時間裡,大多數朝代都非常強大,文明且繁榮......在清朝初期(1600到1700年代),中國擁有最大的領土擴張範圍,統治著世界三分之一的人口,同時擁有極其強大的經濟實力。

Over most of last 1,400+ years most dynasties were very powerful, civilized, and cultured. Under the Tang Dynasty, China expanded its borders extensively and experienced a cultural flourishing; in the Northern and Southern Song Dynasties (from the 900s to the 1200s), China was the most innovative and dynamic economy in the world; in the Ming Dynasty (1300s to 1600s), China was a great power that enjoyed an extended wonderful period that was both very prosperous and very peaceful; and in the early Qing Dynasty (1600s to 1700s), China had its maximum territorial expansion, governing over a third of the world’s population while having an extremely strong economy.

 

然後在1800年代初期到1900年代上半年,中國實力衰落,而歐洲國家(尤其是大英帝國)實力增強。從1800年左右到最近,亞洲的財富和權力逐步轉移到了歐洲,這是世界歷史上最大一次的財富和權力轉移,主要是由於中國的衰弱(這应该是一種反常現象,而非常態)。這種演變和這段歷史所提供的教訓在中國領導人的腦海中非常重要,對我而言尤其有趣。

Then in the early 1800s and through the first half of the 1900s, China lost its power while European countries, and especially the British Empire, gained theirs. The shift of relative wealth and power from Asia to Europe from around 1800 until recently, which created one of the biggest wealth and power shifts in world history in which China was uniquely weak, should be considered an anomaly rather than a norm. This evolution and the lessons this history provides are very much in the minds of Chinese leaders and are especially interesting to me.

 

在上圖中,週期性的起伏是值得關注的。其中的原因我在描述大循環週期的時候解釋過,源於週期性力量的獲取與衰弱和短板的暴露和修補。

In the chart above, note the cyclical ups and downs. The reasons for them are mostly the reasons I explained in my description of the archetypal Big Cycle—because of the gaining and losing of the most important strengths and weaknesses in cyclical and mutually reinforcing ways. (My more detailed descriptions of the rises and falls of these dynasties will be given to you in Part 2 of this book, which covers the major cycles of the major empires and dynasties covered in this book in greater depth.)

 

請注意,這些朝代大週期通常持續約300年。在每個階段中,都有不同的發展階段......這些歷史中蘊藏著許多教訓。這就是為什麼中國人學習歷史以汲取經驗教訓,以幫助他們計畫未來並處理眼前的事件。相信我,從這些歷史中汲取的教訓現在正在指導中國的決策。

Notice that these dynasties’ Big Cycles typically lasted about 300 years. Within each of these were the different stages of development and the things done by emperors to bring the dynasties from one stage to the next, and the reasons for setbacks and declines. In other words, there are many lessons embedded in these histories. That is why Chinese leaders study history to learn lessons that help them plan for the future and deal with the cases at hand. Believe me, the lessons learned from these histories are now guiding Chinese leaders’ decision making.

 

對我來說特別有趣的是......中國和西方大循環如何受到影響?彼此之間的聯繫使它們成為這兩個地區乃至整個世界的最大影響力之一。

What was especially interesting to me was to see the patterns of the archetypal Big Cycle go back much further in history and be described in such detail because China’s continuous history is so ancient and so well-documented. It has also been interesting to see what happened when the Eastern and Western worlds met each other and interacted from the 17th through the 19th centuries and how, as the world has become much smaller and more interconnected since then, the Chinese and Western Big Cycles affected each other so that they are now one of the biggest influences on both these two regions and the entire world.

 

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在自習研究不同國家幾百年的歷史,並初步瞭解他們幾千年更久遠的歷史後,最重要的感受就是我看到的與我之前所認知的完非常不同。我發現這對於我觀念的改變類似於在Google地圖把視角拉高,這樣我可以看到之前從未見過的歷史輪廓。我還可以看到,同樣的故事由於基本相同的原因而反復出現,並且我學到了關於一些大事件如何發生以及更好應對的普世真理。

Probably the most important thing I learned from studying hundreds of years of history carefully and thousands of years of history more superficially in a number of countries is to see things very differently than I did before I did this study. I found shifting my perspective in this way to be similar to going to a much higher level in Google Maps because I could see contours of history that I never saw before. I also could see that the same stories played out over and over again for basically the same reasons, and I learned timeless truths about how the really big movements take place and how to deal with them better.

 

除了影響我對事物的看法之外,我還瞭解到對歷史不間斷的研究如何極大地影響了中國人相對于美國人的思維方式。美國只擁有大約300年歷史的國家(因為美國人認為他們的歷史始於來自歐洲的定居者),而且大多數美國人對歷史和歷史研究的興趣不大,我可以看到,美國人和中國人的想法截然不同。

Besides affecting how I view things, I see how studying so much history up to the present has greatly affected how the Chinese think relative to how Americans think. From living in the United States, which is a country that has about 300 years of history (because Americans think their history began when settlers from Europe arrived) and from living in a country that isn’t as much interested in looking at history and the lessons it provides, I can see that the perspectives of Americans and the Chinese are very different.

 

例如,對美國人來說300年是很長的時間。對於中國人來說,這是最近的事。儘管一場革命或一場戰爭會顛覆我們的體系,這對美國人來說是難以想像的,但對中國人來說卻是不可避免的(因為中國人已經看到他們一直在發生,而中國人已經研究了他們為什麼會發生)。

For example, to Americans 300 years is a very long time. For the Chinese it is very recent. While having a revolution or a war that will overturn our systems is unimaginable to an American, it is inevitable to a Chinese person (because the Chinese have seen that they have always happened and the Chinese have studied the patterns of why they have happened).

 

儘管大多數美國人關注特定事件,特別是現在正在發生的事件,但大多數中國人看到了隨著時間的推移而發生的變化,並根據它們的發生情況進行了分析。儘管美國人為目前的需求而戰,但大多數中國人都在制定如何在未來達到目標的戰略。由於這些不同的觀點,中國人通常比美國人更具有思想性和戰略性,而美國人則更加衝動和戰術性。

While most Americans focus on particular events, especially those that are now happening, most Chinese, especially their leaders, see evolutions over time and put what is happening in the context of them. While Americans fight for what they want in the present, most Chinese strategize how to get what they want in the future. As a result of these different perspectives the Chinese are typically more thoughtful and strategic than Americans, who are more impulsive and tactical.

 

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我還發現中國領導人比美國人更具哲學性。如果您閱讀他們的著作和演講,您會發現這是真的。關於現實如何運作以及如何妥善處理現實的哲學融入了他們的思想,這些思想在他們的著作中得到了表達。

I also found Chinese leaders to be much more philosophical (literally readers of philosophy) than Americans leaders. If you read their writings and their speeches, you will find this to be true. Philosophies of how reality works and how to deal with it well are woven into their thinking, which is expressed in their writings.

 

例如,在與特朗普總統進行第一次談判後不久與劉鶴會面時,他表達了對美中可能發生衝突的擔憂。劉鶴是中國負責經濟政策的副總理,也是政治局委員。 我們相識多年,期間我們就中國和世界經濟和市場進行了非正式的交談。

For example, in a meeting with Liu He soon after he had his first negotiation session with President Trump, he conveyed his concerns about the possibility of US-China conflict. Liu He is Vice Premier of China responsible for economic policy and also a member of the Politburo. We have known each other for many years, during which we have had informal conversations about the Chinese and world economies and markets.

 

在那些年裡,我們開始發展友誼。他是一個非常有技巧、有智慧、謙虛和討人喜歡的人。他解釋說,在與特朗普會面時,他擔心會如何進行,不是因為貿易談判,他相信沒有任何問題無法解決,而是因為他擔心最壞的情況是針鋒相對的升級可能失控並導致更嚴重的後果。他提到了歷史,並講述了他父親的個人故事,以表達他的觀點,即戰爭是如此有害,如果今天再發生一場戰爭,損害可能會更嚴重。他專注於第一次世界大戰的例子。

Over those years we came to develop a friendship. He is a very skilled, wise, humble, and likable man. He explained that going into his meeting with Trump, he was concerned about how it would go, not because of the trade negotiations, which he was confident didn’t have any issues that couldn’t be worked out, but because he was concerned about the worst-case scenario where tit-for-tat escalations could get out of control and lead to more serious consequences. He referred to history and gave a personal story of his father to convey his perspective that wars were so harmful and the damage could be worse if we had another war today. He focused on the World War I example.

 

我們就歷史的長期循環和他對人類命運共同體理念的信念交換了意見。他談到閱讀老子的《道德經》和康德的《純粹理性批判》,以及他如何意識到自己應該盡力而為,然後結果就會如願以償。從那裡他獲得了平靜。我告訴他我同意這個觀點。我告訴他有關“寧靜祈禱”的事情,並建議他冥想以幫助獲得這種觀點。

We exchanged views on long-term cycles in history and his belief in the concept of a community with a shared future for humankind. He talked about reading the Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu and Critique of Pure Reason by Immanuel Kant, and how he realized that he should do his best, and then the outcomes would take their course. From there he gained his calmness. I told him that I shared that perspective. I told him about the “Serenity Prayer” and suggested meditation to him as a way of helping to obtain that perspective.

 

我講這個故事是為了與大家分享一位中國領導人對戰爭風險的看法……並幫助您通過他們的眼睛看到問題。

I tell this one story to share with you one Chinese leader’s perspective on the risk of wars ……in order to help you see the issues through their eyes.

 

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要瞭解中國人民的思想以及他們的價值觀,這與瞭解他們的歷史以及通過幾代人的經歷和反思所產生的價值和哲學同樣重要。

To understand how Chinese people, especially Chinese leaders, think and what they value, it is as important to understand their history and the values and philosophies that have resulted from generations experiencing that history and reflecting on it.

 

他們的歷史和由此產生的哲學,最重要的是其“儒道+道教+馬克思主義“哲學,對中國人民的思維方式產生很大的影響作用,相比於美國的歷史及其猶太+基督教+歐洲哲學對美國人思想的影響要大得多。這是因為中國人(特別是他們的領導人),非常重視以及學習歷史。

Their history and the philosophies that have come from them, most importantly their Confucian-Taoist-Legalist-Marxist philosophies, have a much bigger effect on how Chinese people, and especially Chinese leaders, think than America’s history and its Judeo-Christian-European philosophical roots have on Americans’ thinking. That is because the Chinese, especially their leaders, pay so much attention to history to learn from it.

 

例如,毛澤東,像其他大多數中國領導人一樣,是歷史和哲學讀者。寫詩,並且練習書法。例如,一位尊敬的中國歷史學家告訴我,毛澤東讀了無數次《資治通鑒》,還有更長篇的《二十四史》,以及其他有關中國歷史的著作和非中國哲學家的作品,最重要的是馬克思。

For example, Mao, like most other Chinese leaders, was a voracious reader of history and philosophy, wrote poetry, and practiced calligraphy—e.g., I was told by an esteemed Chinese historian that Mao read Comprehensive Mirror in Aid of Governance, the mammoth 294-volume-long chronicle of China’s history that covers around 16 dynasties and 1,400 years of Chinese history, from around 400 BC to 960 AD, and the even more mammoth Twenty-Four Histories several times as well as numerous other volumes about Chinese history and writings of non-Chinese philosophers, most importantly Marx.

 

他最喜歡的書是《左傳》,覆蓋從西元前722年至468年之間,它以“理性的寫實風格” 聚焦於政治,外交和軍事事務。因為《左傳》提供的經驗教訓與他正在遇到的情況高度相關。他還寫哲學著作和演講。

I’m told that his favorite book was Zuo Tradition, which focuses on political, diplomatic, and military affairs in a “relentlessly realistic style” in the period from 722 BC to 468 BC, because the lessons it offered were so relevant to what he was encountering. He also wrote and spoke philosophically.

 

如果您還沒有閱讀過他寫的書,並且對他的想法感興趣,那麼我建議您閱讀《實踐論》和《矛盾論》,這裡有他對一些主題探討的語錄彙編,我只有時間略讀,但印象深刻。這本書非常有趣且豐富,內容與今日息息相關。

If you haven’t read anything he wrote and are interested in how he thought, I suggest you read “On Practice,” “On Contradiction,” and of course The Little Red Book, which is a compendium of his quotations on a number of subjects, which I only had time to skim but was impressed by. It is interesting and informative in ways that are relevant today.[3]

 

由於其悠久的歷史和更深入的研究,中國人比美國人更感興趣於在更長的時間範圍內謀求發展,相比之下美國人更願意尋求快速的成功,也就是說,中國人更加具備戰略性,美國人更加有戰術性。

As a result of their longer history and their more intensive studying of it, the Chinese are much more interested in evolving well over much longer time frames than Americans, who are much more interested in making quick hits—i.e., the Chinese are more strategic than Americans, who are more tactical.

 

中國人最關注百年的歷史長度(因為這是一個强盛王朝可持續的長度),他們瞭解典型的發展過程有數十年不同的發展階段,因此他們做好了計畫。

The arc that Chinese leaders pay the most attention to is well over a hundred years long (because that’s how long good dynasties last) and they understand that the typical arc of development has different multidecade phases in it, and they plan for them.

 

例如,發生在毛澤東時代的第一階段是革命發生,贏得國家控制權,權力和機構得到鞏固的時期。第二階段發生在鄧小平及其繼任者領導下,在不威脅領先的世界大國(即美國)的前提下,建立財富,權力和凝聚力。第三階段是習近平在這些成就的基礎上,將中國推向2049年中華人民共和國成立100周年的階段。目標讓中國成為“一個繁榮,強大,民主,先進,和諧的社會主義現代化國家”,這將使中國經濟達到美國經濟規模的兩倍。近期計畫中列出了近期目標和實現這些目標的方式,例如《中國製造2025》計畫,《中國標準2035》計畫以及通常的五年計劃。

For example, the first phase, which occurred under Mao, was when the revolution took place, control of the country was won, and power and institutions were solidified. The second phase of building wealth, power, and cohesiveness without threatening the leading world power (i.e., the United States) occurred under Deng and his successors up to Xi. The third phase of building on these accomplishments and moving China toward where it has set out to be on the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049—which is to be “a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious,” which would make the Chinese economy about twice the size of the US economy[4]—is occurring under Xi and his successors. Nearer-term goals and ways for getting toward these goals are set out in nearer-term plans like the Made in China 2025 plan,[5] Xi’s new China Standards 2035 plan, and the usual five-year plans.[6]

 

中國領導人不只是計劃並努力實施他們的計劃;他們制定了明確的指標來判斷他們的表現並實現了他們的大部分目標。

Chinese leaders don’t just plan and try to implement their plans; they set out clear metrics to judge their performance by and they achieve most of their goals.

 

我並不是說這個過程是完美的,因為事實並非如此。我也不是說他們沒有政治分歧、殘酷鬥爭和其他挑戰,因為他們(私下裡)有這些問題。總而言之,我要說的是,他們有更長期基於歷史的觀點、以及規劃視野,把這些觀點劃分為更短期的計畫和運作方式,通過遵循這種方法,他們已經出色地實現了既定目標。

I’m not saying that this process is perfect because it isn’t, and I’m not saying that they don’t have political and other challenges that lead to disagreements, including some brutal fights over what should be done, because they have them (in private). In summary what I am saying is that they have much longer-term and historically based perspectives and planning horizons, they bring those down to shorter-terms plans and ways of operating, and they have done an excellent job of achieving what they set out to do by following this approach.

 

順便說一句,多年來我巧合地發現,我學習歷史、尋找模式和處理戰術決策對我看待和做事情的方式有類似的影響。現在把過去的500年看作是近代歷史,近100多年最相關,我從這個角度觀察到的模式非常有助於我預測事件如何發生,並讓我知道在接下來的幾周,幾個月和幾年中如何應對

By the way, I have coincidently discovered over many years that my studying history, looking for patterns, and dealing with tactical decisions has had a similar effect on how I see and do things—e.g., I now see the last 500 years as recent history, the most relevant arcs seem about 100+ years long, and the patterns I observe from taking this perspective are very helpful to my anticipating how events are likely to transpire and informing me about how I should be positioned over the coming weeks, months, and years.

(待續)

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(系列文章)

Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (一):背景

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