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【中英對照】Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency (一):背景 Background


「中國大週期及其貨幣The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency」是Ray Dalio 的The Changing World Order一書子章節,以一個海外觀察者的角度,針對中國近年的發展給出了思考。其他內容包括荷蘭大帝國興盛、大英大帝國興衰、美利堅大帝國興衰。

此文先在Ray Dalio LinkedIn以英語發布,經中國大陸媒體譯為中文發在媒體上。不過翻譯過程中刪除了很多中國政治相關敏感詞彙,相當可惜......

因此本文由商僧文摘綜合中英2篇文章重新翻譯、摘要而成,並且附上英文原文供參考。

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不少人告訴我撰寫這篇文章的風險,因為美中正進行某種摩擦,雙方都情緒高漲,所以當我說中國好話,美國人會生氣;當我批評中國,中國人會生氣。雙方不認可我觀點的人會遷怒我,媒體也會歪曲我。

Several people told me that it is risky for me to write this chapter because the US is in a type of war with China and emotions are running high, so many Americans will be angry at me when I say complimentary things about China, many Chinese will be angry at me when I say critical things about China, many people on both sides who disagree with something I say will be angry at me for saying it, and many in the media will distort what I say.

 

但是,我不能因為擔心而不敢公開發表我的觀點,因為美中關係太重要且極具爭議。對我而言,不誠實地談論會有損我的自尊。

However, I can’t not speak openly out of fear of reprisals because the US-China relationship is too important and too controversial to be left untouched by people who know both of these countries well, and for me not to speak honestly about this situation would cost me my self-respect.

 

我在這里傳遞的只是我學習過程的最新迭代。我的學習過程是通過直接經驗和研究來學習,寫下我所學到的東西,向聰明的人展示它,然後讓他們批判它,以便進行壓力測試,然後探索差異,再進一步發展,一遍又一遍,至死方休。

What I am passing along here is just the latest iteration of my learning process. My process is to learn through my direct experiences and through my research, to write up what I have learned, to show it to smart people to have them attack it in order to stress test it, to explore our differences, to evolve it some more, and do that over and over again until I die.

 

因此,這項研究是我迄今為止36年來所做的結果。它並不完善,是非對錯還未被充分檢驗,它是為了幫助我們共同找出正確的事物而提供給您使用或批評。

So this study is the product of my having done that for the past 36 years up until now. It is incomplete, it is right and wrong in ways yet to be discovered, and it is provided to you to use or to criticize in the spirit of helping us together find out what’s true.

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儘管我不是中國文化和中國治理方式的專家,但我在過去的近40年中與中國有著許多直接的經驗,我對中國進行了廣泛的歷史和經濟研究,並且擁有美國和全球視角。因為我需要在實際運行的宏觀經濟方向上下注,這個視角讓我獲得了巨大成功。這使我對中國過去以及目前的狀況有一些不同尋常見解,這可能對那些沒有相關經驗的人有所幫助。

Though I’m no expert on Chinese culture and the Chinese way of operating, I have had numerous direct experiences with China over nearly four decades, I have done extensive historical and economic research about China, and I have a US and global perspective that has been gained because of my need to make practical macroeconomic bets. That has given me an uncommon perspective of where China has been and what’s going on with it now that might be helpful to those who haven’t had such an extensive exposure.

 

更具體地說,我在這裡傳遞給您的觀點來自於我過去36年與中國人就中國和世界問題(主要是經濟、市場)進行交流以及大量研究所獲得的經驗。我學到了很多關於中國文化知識,以及中國治理模式的運作方式:比如家庭禮序、儒家思想,以及歷代統治者的為政得失。

More specifically, the perspective I am passing along to you here has been gained from 36 years of interfacing with Chinese people about Chinese and world issues (mostly economics and markets in China and the world) and from doing a lot of research. Through my experiences and by getting to know some of China’s top leaders, in addition to learning about Chinese economics and markets, I learned a lot about Chinese culture, how it operates today, and how it has evolved over thousands of years: from notions of how family members and others should behave with each other to Confucian thinking and neo-Confucian thinking, and through various dynasties and modern leaders to the lessons these events provide about how leaders should lead and how followers should follow.

 

當我說“中國文化”時,我指的是這些典型的中國價值觀和運作方式,我在研究中一遍又一遍地看到了這點。例如,我從李光耀、鄧小平的經驗中,看到了他們如何通過實踐儒家價值觀與資本主義並存,探索中國是如何發展“中國特色社會主義市場經濟”。

These typical Chinese values and ways of operating are what I’m referring to when I say “Chinese culture,” which I have seen manifested over and over in my experiences and my research. For example, from my personal experiences, I could see how Lee Kuan Yew, the Prime Minister of Singapore, and Deng Xiaoping, the leader who initiated China’s reform and opening up, were connected by Confucian values coexisting with capitalist practices so that they together could explore how China could have a “socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.”

 

在過去的兩年中,我還研究了中國歷史,這是我研究帝國及其貨幣的興衰的一部分,目的是總結出關於帝國興衰更迭的普世規律,並幫助我理解受歷史影響很大的中國人,是如何思考的。我在研究團隊的幫助下進行了深入研究,並與世界上一些最博學的中國、美國和非美國學者以及從業者進行了相互驗證,從而完成了這項研究。

Over the last couple of years I have also undertaken the study of Chinese history as part of my study of the rises and declines of empires and their currencies in order to learn the timeless and universal principles about how empires rise and decline and to help me understand how the Chinese, especially their leaders, who are greatly influenced by history, think. I did this study by researching deeply with the help of my research team and triangulating with the some of the most knowledgeable Chinese, American, and non-American scholars and practitioners on the planet.

 

在我與中國36年的經驗中,我認識了許多中國人並保持著比較親近的聯繫。與我經歷過的美國一樣,我也經歷了中國的最近一段時期的歷史。最終我相信我對美國和中國的看法都是正面的,我會盡力在這裡傳達他們。

Over my 36 years of experience with China, I have come to know many Chinese people from the lowest to some of the highest in rank in an up-close and intimate way, and I have experienced China’s recent history just as I have experienced America’s. As a result, I believe that I see both the American and Chinese perspectives pretty well. I will do my best to convey them here.

 

我敦促一些(未在中國花費大量時間的)人擺脫對舊的“共產主義中國”的任何刻板印象,並擺脫那些理解不深、帶有偏見政黨的描述,因為他們錯了。我敦促您與在中國長時間工作的人一起,對所聽聞的內容交叉驗證。

I urge those of you who haven’t spent considerable time in China to get rid of any stereotypes you might have of the old “Communist China” and to look past the pictures that are often painted for you by biased parties who also haven’t spent much time there, because they’re wrong. I urge you to triangulate whatever you are hearing or reading with people who have spent lots of time in China working with the Chinese people.

 

順便說一句,我認為盲目和近乎暴力的信念以及媒體扭曲阻礙了人們對不同觀點的周密探究,這是我們時代的一個可怕標誌。

As an aside, I think that the blind and near-violent loyalties and media distortions that stand in the way of thoughtfully exploring different perspectives are a frightening sign of our times.

 

明確地說,我沒有意識形態傾向,也不做意識形態方面的選邊站隊(例如,我不會根據是符合美國、中國還是我自己的思想信念來選擇美方或中方)。我很實際,就像醫生一樣,醫生通過邏輯來對待事物,並且相信隨著時間的推移,這種方式是會行之有效的。我對歷史的研究以及對因果關係的思考使我對有效的方法產生了信念。

To be clear, I’m not ideological and I don’t choose sides ideologically. For example, I don’t choose an American side or a Chinese side based on whether it aligns with American, Chinese, or my own ideological beliefs. I’m practical like a doctor who approaches things through logic and believes in what works well through time. My study of history and my thinking about cause/effect relationships are what have led me to my beliefs about what works well.

 

在本書開始時,我認為對使國家富裕起來最重要的是17種不同的衡量標準,而在我經常提到的8種衡量標準則更為狹窄。因此,當我看中國時,正是通過這些因素來判斷中國。我也嘗試通過他們的眼睛看他們的情況。我唯一能做的就是乞求您的耐心和開放態度,因為我與您分享了我學到的東西。

What I believe is most important in making a country work well was laid out in 17 different measures of strength at the beginning of this book and more narrowly in the eight measures I have been referring to regularly. So, when I look at China, it is through the lens of these factors that I am judging it. I also try to see their circumstances through their eyes. The only thing I can do is beg for your patience and open-mindedness as I share what I’ve learned with you.

 

在本章中,我們將探討中國的悠久歷史和思想文化的誕生,我們將簡要回顧它從1800年代初的卓越無比到20世紀初的衰落歷史,並且我們將更仔細地研究它起於毫末、到成為當今世界領先大國的興起,並有可能在未來幾年內成為世界上最強大的國家。

This chapter is a continuation of our look at the leading empires over the last 500 years, starting with the Dutch and British empires in Chapter 3, and the US Empire in Chapter 4. In this chapter, we will touch on China’s long history and the thinking that it has produced, we will briefly review its decline from pre-eminence in the early 1800s to insignificance early in the 20th century, and we will more carefully look at its recent emergence from insignificance to its near comparability to the world’s leading empire today—and its likelihood of becoming the most powerful empire in the world not many years in the future.

(待續)

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(Ray Dalio 中國大週期和貨幣 The Big Cycle of China and Its Currency系列文章)

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